Coinbase: The ’Amazon of Crypto’? Bernstein Sets Bold $510 Target for COIN

Wall Street's latest crypto crush just got a turbocharged price target—and it's dripping with Big Tech comparisons.

Bernstein analysts slapped a $510 valuation on Coinbase (COIN), framing the exchange as the potential 'Amazon of crypto.' That's right—the same firm that once dismissed Bitcoin as a bubble now sees Coinbase stock nearly doubling from current levels.

Why the sudden love affair? Three words: institutional adoption wave. As traditional finance finally dips its toes (or more accurately, cannonballs) into digital assets, Coinbase's compliant infrastructure positions it as the go-to gateway. The stock's already up 120% this year—because nothing screams 'mainstream' like hedge funds FOMO-ing into crypto custodians.

Of course, crypto winters have a way of humbling even the most bullish targets. Remember when analysts called $100 oil a sure thing? Neither does anyone else.

“The most misunderstood stock” gets a new storyline

Bernstein analysts argued that Coinbase’s strength has been underestimated across the board.

It’s the only crypto firm in the S&P 500 and runs the largest stablecoin business across exchanges, contributing nearly 15% of total revenue.

“It dominates institutional crypto (powers custody for 8 out of 11 Bitcoin ETF asset managers), acquired the largest global crypto options exchange (Deribit).”

In fact, the analysts expect Coinbase to gain massively from the stablecoin bill.

Additionally, Coinbase’s moat in institutional crypto remains unrivaled, per Bernstein, citing the firm’s custody operations and recent acquisition of Deribit option exchange.

Still, Coinbase runs Base, an ethereum layer 2 (L2) that Bernstein analysts view as the foundation of a tokenization network for institutional clients, as seen by recent JPMorgan’s JPMD tests. 

Bernstein’s valuation

Collectively, these growth catalysts informed the analysts’ 2x projection for earnings per share (EPS) for the next two years and COIN’s 64% upside. 

“We are 2.2x consensus on 2025E EPS and 2.3x consensus on 2026E EPS. We present a deep dive primer on Coinbase. We also update the model and MOVE up our target price (PT $510, Outperform).”

They expect Coinbase’s total revenue to grow to $9.5 billion by the end of 2025 and $14.5 billion by 2026.

The growth WOULD be boosted by an increase in trading and non-trading revenue streams like staking and stablecoins. On EPS projections, the analysts noted, 

“Our adjusted EPS for 2025E (ex FV) has increased to $11.26. For 2026E and 2027E, we have adjusted our EPS estimates to ~$17.92 in 2026E (up ~22% vs our previous estimate) and $20.38 in 2027E (up ~28% vs previous estimates).

However, they downplayed any bearish thesis on Coinbase, stating that competition from Robinhood and other traditional brokers is still ‘months away.’ 

At press time, COIN’s pre-market value was $357, suggesting about 43% upside if the $510 target is hit. 

Source: COIN, TradingView 

Measured from April lows, COIN has surged over 140%, outperforming some select crypto equities in Q2 recovery.