Bitcoin’s Next Big Move: Decoding the KEY Datasets That Will Dictate BTC’s Market Trajectory

Bitcoin's price action has traders scrambling for clues—here's what the data screams about its next breakout or breakdown.

On-chain whispers vs. exchange screams

Liquidity pools flash conflicting signals while institutional wallets stack sats like Wall Street hoards bailouts.

The volatility paradox

Options markets price in Armageddon as spot volumes flatline—because nothing says 'healthy market' like terrified hedgers and bored day traders.

Miners playing chicken with capitulation

Hash ribbons tighten while ASICs gather dust in Texas warehouses. Spoiler: someone always blinks first.

One thing's certain: when these metrics converge, the move will be violent enough to liquidate both overleveraged degens and skeptical analysts. Place your bets—the casino never closes.

Bitcoin’s selling pressure intensifies 

According to CryptoQuant’s analyst Axel Adler, the past day saw massive selling activity.

As such, 14.7k BTC  were sold at a loss as the market started to decline below $100k, reflecting panic selling. 

Source: CryptoQuant

During the same period, 3.1K BTC were sold for a profit on centralized exchanges. Overall, short-term holders realized 17.8K BTC, with net capitulation totaling 11.6K BTC.

This spike in selling reflects a sudden shift in sentiment, as investor concerns intensify. As a result, Bitcoin’s Advanced Sentiment Index dropped to -20%, indicating rising bearish pressure.

Source: CryptoQuant

Bearish sentiment has reached its highest level in a month, with selling pressure intensifying as the negative delta in Taker order volume deepened, highlighting growing seller dominance.

This shift coincided with Bitcoin’s drop below $100K.

As Open Interest declined, traders were forced to unwind Leveraged positions, leading to a spike in liquidations.

Notably, 2.6K BTC in long positions were wiped out, signaling heightened market stress.

Source: CryptoQuant

The shift in the derivatives market signaled mounting investor concerns.

However, sentiment began to recover as BTC reclaimed the $101K level. The Advanced Sentiment Index ROSE from 20% to 37%, and the Volume Delta softened, hinting at stabilizing conditions.

Despite this, Volume Delta remains in bearish territory, suggesting only partial recovery. Investors appear to be cautiously buying oversold positions, aiming to capitalize on the pullback.

Source: CryptoQuant

We can see the partial buying activity as Exchange Netflow has turned negative once again. At press time, Exchange Netflow sat around 1.8k, indicating that buyers have returned and bought recently oversold positions. 

Despite this sign of potential recovery, caution remains in the market due to the possible escalation of the Middle East conflict.

What’s next for BTC

The recent market drop and increased selling came amid U.S. strikes on three Iranian targets, placing markets on high alert over possible escalation.

If geopolitical tensions ease, a full recovery appears likely, with buyers returning and bitcoin aiming to reclaim $104,238. 

However, if the conflict intensifies, sentiment may sour further, leading to another decline. In that case, BTC could find support NEAR $97,766.