Bitcoin’s $100K Crucible: Can the King of Crypto Defy Risk-Off Markets in 2025?

Bitcoin stares down its moment of truth as global risk appetite shrinks. The $100,000 level isn't just psychological—it's the battleground where institutional conviction meets retail panic.

Why This Price Matters

Forget the diamond hands memes. Holding six figures requires real buying pressure when traditional markets wobble. The Fed's latest policy pivot has bond traders fleeing to safety—while crypto degens double down on 'number go up' theology.

The Institutional Wildcard

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF now holds more BTC than MicroStrategy. That's either a bullish omen or proof Wall Street finally learned to front-run retail. Either way, the smart money's here to stay—volatility be damned.

Technical Tightrope

Chartists see $100K as both support and resistance. Break below? Brace for 'I told you so' from gold bugs. Hold firm? Watch maximalists declare victory over fiat—until the next 20% correction.

As always in crypto, the only certainty is leverage liquidations. Whether this is 2017's euphoria or 2021's consolidation writ large depends entirely on whether your bags are heavy... or just heavy with regret.

Bitcoin at low risk, but uncertainty persists

On the positive side, Bitcoin’s overall risk regime is low right now. This, according to analysts at the Swiss-based trading firm Swissblock and Bitcoin Vector researchers.  

Citing their proprietary BTC risk indicator, the analysts noted that the asset has been in a “low risk” regime since April. 

Source: bitcoin Vector

This coincided with the overall Q2 rebound from $75k to over $100k, allowing bulls’ firm market control.

However, the firm cautioned that if the indicator shifts to high-risk and the price dips below $100k, the dip could accelerate. 

“If it closes below $100k, downside momentum could accelerate. If the Risk-Off Signal shifts toward high-risk, that’s the moment to act.”

Meanwhile, the analysts also flagged that BTC’s price momentum stalled and briefly dipped into the negative zone, further putting bulls on notice. Swissblock added,  

“If momentum turns up with strength—that’s the bullish signal. For now, we’re not seeing it yet.”

Source: Swissblock

Such a cautious approach was evident on the Options market front too. 

According to Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital, the market is on “pause” right now and a typical summer lull could drag markets. In fact, the trading desk noted that the market may be skewed towards downside risk protection for June and September tenors. 

“Crypto stays quiet, but under the hood, risk sentiment is shifting. $BTC and $ETH risk reversals favor downside, pointing to active hedging.”

In other words, there may be bearish undertones in the NEAR term across the derivatives market. 

Given the uncertainty and neutral to bearish Bitcoin projection by experts, the short-term price action could be driven mainly by a liquidation hunt. 

According to CoinGlass’s 30-day liquidation map, the key likely price magnets WOULD be $111k, $109k, $103k, and around $100k. 

The nearest liquidity pool to the press time price action was $103k and $100k. This hinted at a possible liquidity sweep lower, before a potential hike towards $109k if market sentiment improves. 

There didn’t seem to be much liquidity below $100k – A sign that it could be the short-term support to watch. 

Source: CoinGlass

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion