Bitcoin Stalls Under $108K: Geopolitical Storm Ahead as Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates

Bitcoin''s price action hits turbulence below the $108K threshold—just as Middle East tensions reach a boiling point. Here''s how traders are navigating the chaos.

Geopolitical Shockwaves Rattle Crypto Markets

The king of crypto''s sideways dance coincides with missile strikes and emergency OPEC meetings. Safe-haven narrative? More like ''hold onto your Satoshis.''

Institutional Money Plays Both Sides

While retail panics, hedge funds are quietly loading up on volatility derivatives. Because nothing says ''hedge'' like profiting from others'' existential dread.

The Cynic''s Take

War, inflation, and a potential energy crisis? At least Wall Street finally found something more volatile than their ex-analyst''s cocaine habit.

Markets on edge

Jin added that such a scenario WOULD drive inflation higher by the end of the year, triggering a risk-off move and denting crypto and equity markets. 

“As crypto trades become more and more linked to macro assets, Bitcoin, which is often seen as ‘macro beta’ these days, is likely to see some fresh volatility.”

There were speculations that the U.S. may join the war, but lawmaker Thomas Massie maintained that they can’t go to war without a congressional approval. 

In addition, prediction site Polymarket showed only a 2% chance of the U.S. declaring war on Iran before July.  

On a Monday market update, crypto trading firm QCP Capital echoed Jin’s sentiment and warned that a U.S. involvement would lead to ‘repricing across risk assets.’

“A potential Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil sharply higher. Any direct US military involvement would likely result in significant repricing across risk assets.”

At press time, there was increased defensive BTC market positioning as 25 Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) flipped negative. 

It meant short-term bearish sentiment and increased demand for puts (bearish bets) over calls (bullish bets). Simply put, traders were heavily hedging against further downside risk. 

Source: Amberdata

That said, BTC ETFs saw $412 million inflows on the 16th of June, which reinforced institutional conviction. Whether the positive inflows will continue throughout the week remains to be seen. 

But Jin highlighted that BTC could hit $150K by Q4, if the ETF inflows remain positive in the medium term. In the short term, though, the king coin may be under the whims of liquidation hunt, noted analyst Will Woo. 

If so, the next price magnet could be the $100K-$103K area before a likely sweep to $108K-$110K price zone. The upside liquidity hunt could happen if any positive deal is reached between Iran and Israel. 

Source: CoinGlass