Whale Drops $200M on Bitcoin While Shorts Hit $1B – Who Blinks First?

Bitcoin''s latest power struggle just got a $200 million whale-sized vote of confidence—while shorts pile up to a staggering $1 billion. The stage is set for a volatility explosion.

Whales vs. shorts: A billion-dollar showdown

When crypto''s biggest players place opposing billion-dollar bets, retail traders become collateral damage. The whale''s move screams long-term conviction, while the mountain of shorts suggests traders are betting against a rally. Somebody''s about to be very wrong—and very poor.

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are ''closely monitoring the situation'' (read: frantically recalculating their bonuses). The only certainty? Bitcoin doesn''t care about your positions.

How the whale’s 20X long could impact key BTC levels

The whale decided to re-enter another BTC long with 20x leverage on a $200 million position (1,894 BTC), which was a big risk considering the current volatility.

Daily spikes in ROI on the chart indicated times when it performed well. However, sharp drawdowns of ROI, particularly in early April, suggested a propensity to risk.

Liquidation of positions with a 100% ROI in April and more stable trading indicated a guarded recovery.

Source: LookOnChain

Since high leverage is once again in the reckoning, a breakout above the resistance may be huge in returns. However, a failure there WOULD increase the losses.

This series of bitcoin longs might either put him back on track or intensify the recent loss.

Liquidation Maps show a critical zone between $103.8K and $104K. Roughly $700 million in long leverage sits here.

If BTC revisits this area, cascading long liquidations could be triggered, putting Aguila’s trade at risk.

On the flip side, short positions totaling close to $1 billion cluster between $106.5K and $107K. If BTC pushes above this zone, it could trigger a short squeeze, benefiting high-leverage longs like Aguila’s.

Source: CoinGlass

However, there was the doubt of Sunday pumps, and so there were chances that the BTC may stay above $104K again to resume the climb.

The momentum has the potential to provide a momentum-driven breakout for the whale, in case BTC can hold above $106K.

Failing to do so may result in immediate downside first before a turnaround could be expected towards a new all-time high.

How MVRV could define the next targets

MVRV Pricing Bands had the price of Bitcoin at $105,767, which was just above +0.5 sigma of $102,044.

Unless BTC managed to maintain this border, a price fall to the mean at $82,570 was likely to occur.

Nevertheless, should the BTC push off $102K and continue in an upward direction, the strategy might be justified, particularly in case the price retargets the +1.0 sigma range to the value of $121,519.

Source: Ali Charts/X

MVRV bands often signal reversal zones. They now highlight a narrow window where BTC’s next move could be decisive—either validating Aguila’s bold entry or setting him up for another hard reset.