$3B Bitcoin Options Expire Today – Brace for Crypto Market Turmoil or Opportunity?

Today''s $3 billion Bitcoin options expiry has traders on edge—will it spark another sell-off or become a contrarian buying opportunity?

The crypto market holds its breath as a massive derivatives event unfolds. With Bitcoin''s price action already volatile, this expiry could amplify moves in either direction.

Wall Street''s usual playbook doesn''t apply here—in crypto, ''risk management'' often means praying to the chart gods while leverage gets liquidated. Meanwhile, institutional traders pretend they understood the Greeks all along.

Max Pain at $107K — but BTC’s already below it

Roughly $3.04 billion in BTC Options are set to expire today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.95 and a Max Pain Price of $107,000.

A put-call ratio below 1, like in this case, suggests that more traders are holding buy (call) positions in the market.

Source: Deribit

However, Bitcoin’s price traded well below this max pain level at $104,682, creating a significant gap.

This implies that traders who dominate a large portion of the Notional Value are likely to record major losses, while short sellers stand to profit.

Typically, such a scenario pushes traders to open more short positions to hedge against losses, while others may choose to take profit.

AMBCrypto analysis confirms that this trend has already begun. In the past 24 hours, Options Open Interest (OI) has surged significantly.

OI has increased by 3.88% to $46.06 billion, indicating more contracts are being opened. Simultaneously, Trading Volume has spiked to $7.06 billion—a 107.64% increase.

Source: CoinGlass

This surge in both metrics, amid a declining price and $3.04 billion in contracts about to expire, suggests that more traders are leaning toward selling.

$422 million liquidated!

The bearish sentiment is also evident in the Futures market, which mirrors the Options market to some extent. In this case, the number of sellers has increased.

Liquidation data was one-sided. Longs took a $422.89 million hit over 24 hours, while shorts lost only $28.63 million.

Source: CoinGlass

Moreover, the Long/Short Ratio stood at 0.929—firmly below 1, confirming that sellers were in control.

Can traditional and spot investors save Bitcoin?

Interestingly, spot investors didn’t flinch. $150.70 million worth of BTC flowed into exchanges over 24 hours, while weekly accumulation crossed $651 million.

Source: CoinGlass

Traditional investors are also making moves.

At the time of writing, $86 million worth of Bitcoin was purchased across several Bitcoin spot ETFs, contributing to a cumulative $982 million in purchases over the past three days.

These large-scale buy-ins typically influence market sentiment positively and may eventually lead to a supply squeeze.

However, a significant market reversal—specifically a $3,000 recovery in Bitcoin’s price—seems unlikely before the Options expire.

If this reversal doesn’t occur, bitcoin is likely to slide even lower.