XRP ETF Nears Approval as Polymarket Bets Hit 93%—Is This the Breakout Moment?

Ripple's long-awaited ETF dream might finally be crystallizing. Prediction markets now price a 93% chance of approval—a staggering vote of confidence for the oft-maligned crypto.

Wall Street's sudden love affair with crypto ETFs continues. After Bitcoin and Ethereum funds raked in billions, regulators face mounting pressure to greenlight XRP—despite its legal baggage. The SEC's grudging evolution from 'crypto is fraud' to 'fine, here’s your paperwork' would be hilarious if it weren’t so profitable.

But don’t break out the champagne yet. Remember: 93% isn’t 100%, and in crypto, the house always wins eventually. Whether this becomes XRP’s redemption arc or just another ‘buy the rumor’ trap depends entirely on whether the suits in DC finally stop moving goalposts.

XRP ETF approval odds rise steeply

One of the top contenders drawing widespread attention is Ripple [XRP], which has seen a surge in ETF-related buzz fueled by a series of regulatory wins and legal clarity. 

Investor sentiment surrounding a potential XRP ETF has grown significantly more bullish, with Polymarket data showing a sharp rise in approval odds to 93% for 2025.

This marks a notable 20% increase since early May, driven by a surge in betting activity that reflects growing confidence in regulatory greenlighting.

Although the SEC recently postponed its decision on Grayscale’s spot XRP ETF, briefly tempering market enthusiasm and pushing approval odds down to 83% last week, the overall outlook still remains positive.

Many investors remain optimistic that the SEC will ultimately give the green light to an XRP ETF before the year concludes.

What’s driving this confidence?

As expected, multiple catalysts are driving the growing Optimism for an XRP ETF approval in 2025, with activity on Polymarket reflecting this rising confidence.

A key factor is the increasing number of XRP ETF proposals currently under SEC review, including filings from major asset managers like Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton.

The volume and diversity of applicants are pushing expectations for at least one approval before the year ends.

Adding to the momentum, the launch of CME Group’s XRP Futures ETF in mid-May, backed by strong performance metrics, has reinforced the asset’s credibility and market maturity.

What’s more?

This wave of positive developments coincides with XRP trading at $2.23, following a 1.66% daily price increase, according to CoinMarketCap.

However, while market sentiment leans in favor of approval, legal clarity will play a decisive role in shaping the final outcome.