Bitcoin’s Bull Run: Two Red Flags That Could Spell Trouble Ahead

Bitcoin’s latest surge has traders cheering—but seasoned crypto vets know rallies like this don’t last forever. Here’s what could pull the rug out.

1. Overheated Metrics Scream ’Caution’

When open interest and funding rates spike in tandem, it’s usually Wall Street’s way of setting up a trap for retail FOMO. Sound familiar?

2. Macro Winds Are Shifting

The Fed might still be talking dovish, but treasury yields don’t lie. Liquidity tides that lifted crypto boats in Q1? Already receding.

Of course, none of this matters until it does—after all, since when did fundamentals stop a good old-fashioned bubble? *sips coffee*

Massive Options expiry looms as OI hits record levels

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin Options Open Interest (OI) has surged to a record $46.2 billion, accumulating $25.8 billion since early April.

At the same time, the put/call ratio held at 0.77, underscoring a pronounced bullish skew. Simply put, call Options are dominating, with traders leaning into upside exposure.

In contrast, BTC Futures OI contracted by over $3 billion within the past week, exerting bearish pressure on spot price action.

This divergence is telling. While Futures traders unwind leverage amid macro uncertainty, Options market participants are deploying capital more strategically without triggering liquidation cascades.

Source: Glassnode

However, this tactical rotation isn’t without risk.

Roughly 93,000 contracts are set to expire soon, with $100k emerging as the max pain threshold. Many of those calls are now DEEP in the money, setting the stage for significant profit-taking.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to gravitate toward clusters of heavy Options expiry, as market makers hedge accordingly. Does this setup make a “dip” back below the six-figure mark inevitable?

Liquidity pools deepen as Bitcoin’s volatility peaks

Typically, a call-heavy Options order book signals strong bullish conviction, reflecting trader confidence in continued upside. However, when volatility ramps up, that same setup morphs into a high-stakes gamble.

After an 11-day streak of steady inflows, BTC ETFs flipped the script with a sharp $347 million outflow. It is a clear sign institutional players are recalibrating risk amid the choppy price action.

Complementing this, the number of bitcoin whale wallets (holding >1,000 BTC) has contracted sharply over the past four days, coinciding with BTC’s dip from $109k to $105k at press time.

All this is happening while the trade war heats up into a full-on courtroom battle. With Treasury yields tanking, retail investors are playing it safe, moving money into bonds instead of riskier crypto bets.

Source: Trading Economics

Put together, the resulting deleveraging across spot and derivatives markets suggests the onset of a broader distribution phase. 

Consequently, Options traders, many sitting on deep “in-the-money” calls, may begin to unwind and hedge, amplifying short-term selling pressure.

In this liquidity-thin environment, structural flows favor the bears. Unless risk appetite rebounds or positioning resets, a retest of the $100k magnet zone for Bitcoin is not just possible — it’s probable.