Bitcoin ETFs Just Killed the Old Bull-Bear Playbook—Now What?

Wall Street’s shiny new Bitcoin ETFs aren’t just disrupting portfolios—they’re rewriting crypto’s entire market rhythm. Suddenly, the four-year cycles look as outdated as a 2017 ICO whitepaper.

When BlackRock starts playing, volatility gets a makeover. The ’halving pump and dump’ script? Trashed. Retail FOMO meets institutional muscle, and the market’s got whiplash.

But let’s not throw confetti yet. Remember when gold ETFs launched? Yeah—the metal mooned... right before becoming another hedge fund parking spot. History rhymes, but Bitcoin dances to its own beat.

Source: Sentora/X

However, the current cycle has been different and confusing even to seasoned BTC cycle analysts, noted the analytics firm. 

“This time, however, the script is different: distribution kicked off much earlier, has unfolded in a slower, stop-start fashion, and shows none of the clean, symmetrical rhythm we’ve come to expect.”

Cycle is on track, but volatility keeps falling

Most analysts have linked the perceived cycle changes to a greater number of institutions embracing BTC. Especially after the approval of U.S Spot ETFs in early 2024.

In fact, CryptoQuant founder Ji Young Ju shared a similar outlook after making a wrong bear market call in early 2025, only for BTC to hit a new all-time high two months later. 

He said,

“It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory. New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signalling a transition as the bitcoin market merges with TradFi.”

Despite the aforementioned changes in demand and supply dynamics, the present cycle (epoch 5) has been closely trailing the third (blue) and fourth (green) cycles. Worth pointing out, however, that it slightly diverged in January 2025. 

Source: Glassnode

Since the last April halving, Bitcoin has rallied by over 70%, rising from $63k to over $109k. However, over the same period, the past cycles saw much higher returns.

In the 2020-2021 cycle (epoch 4), BTC pumped by 354% while in 2017 (epoch 3, blue), the asset gained by over 500%. 

When the returns were zoomed out on a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis, it revealed a steady decline. The 4-year BTC cycle CAGR dropped from over 850% in 2015 to about 30% in May 2025. 

In short, annual investor returns have shrunk over the years – A MOVE some have linked to BTC’s “asset maturity” status as TradFi embraces it. This thesis can also be supported by easing volatility (price swings).

Source: The Block

Since the debut of U.S Spot ETFs, annualized BTC volatility (30-day) has dropped from 78% to 35% – A sign that the asset became relatively less volatile from early 2024. 

When zoomed out from 2017, its volatility has been trending southwards, indicating that BTC has become more mature. Further adoption by institutions may make it even more like stocks or gold.  

Going forward, BTC’s massive upside potential may diminish. Despite it being the best asset on a risk-adjusted basis, compared to most traditional investments.