Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Peak? Why Fall 2025 Could Be the Top

Bitcoin’s market cycles move like clockwork—until they don’t. If history rhymes, late 2025 might just be the next euphoric peak before the inevitable comedown.

The Halving Hustle

Four-year cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events have held eerily true. The 2024 supply cut sets the stage for a potential 12-18 month price surge—putting the spotlight squarely on Q3/Q4 2025.

Institutional FOMO Meets Retail Mania

ETF inflows juice the pumps early, but the real fireworks start when your Uber driver starts quoting Fibonacci retracements. That’s when you know the top is near.

A Cynic’s Footnote

Of course, this time could be ’different’—said every overleveraged trader before their portfolio got Thanos-snapped by a 30% correction. Proceed with diamond hands… and an exit strategy.

Positive takeaways for long-term holders

Source: Axel Adler Insights

Based on the bitcoin advanced net UTXO Supply Ratio, crypto analyst Axel Adler concluded that the metric indicated that large players secured partial profits. Yet, the Bitcoin peak signal did not show a cycle top.

Calculated using the Market to Realized Price Ratio (MRPR) of long-term holders and the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) (30 DMA and 365 DMA) metric, it was useful in catching the local peaks in 2014, 2017-18, and 2021. Currently, the indicator shows a late bull stage.

The MRPR and VDD metrics were strengthening, but have not gotten to historical extreme levels. Holders, especially with large volume, can realize partial profits, but the medium-term targets remain bullish.

Source: Axel Adler Insights

“Hot” market signals are generated when small-fractal crosses medium-fractal “from above” while in the positive zone. Based on the Bitcoin halving cycle model’s assessment, the cycle top could occur in the fall of 2025.

Source: CryptoQuant Insights

In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, user Onchain Edge observed that a combination of two factors meant a bullish continuation was likely. The first factor was the steadily negative exchange netflow. This fact supported the idea of BTC accumulation.

The other factor was the falling Taker Buy Sell Ratio. This downtrend indicated increased market sell pressure, showing more aggressive sellers in recent days.

It was a result of profit-taking activity NEAR all-time highs and pointed toward retail de-risking.

Bitcoin is set to grind higher in the coming weeks as retail investors accumulate and take profits, while large inflows to exchanges remain absent, signaling a lack of panic selling.