Toncoin Stalls at Critical Support—Can Bulls Defend $2.8 Amid Record-Low Volume?

Toncoin’s price action has turned sluggish as bears tighten their grip—trading volume just cratered to its lowest point in 12 months. The $2.8 level now looms as a make-or-break zone for hopeful bulls.

Market sentiment sours as liquidity dries up. With fewer participants jumping in, the asset risks becoming another casualty of crypto’s infamous ’ghost town’ rallies—where pumps lack conviction and Wall Street sharks couldn’t care less.

All eyes on that key support. If $2.8 cracks, expect panic. If it holds... well, even a dead cat bounces once. Just ask the bagholders from last cycle.

Support level could be lost on TON

At press time, TON traded directly on a critical support level. A red candle formed just above this zone, signaling a potential breakdown.

This bearish sentiment, along with the candlestick formation, appears within a broader bullish pattern known as the symmetrical triangle.

Source: TradingView

Typically, the bottom support level often serves as a launch point, driving the asset toward the pattern’s peak at $4.9.

However, with a bearish candle forming at support, TON is likely to trade lower.

Key levels to watch for a potential rebound are $2.8, $2.5, and $2.3. The strength of buy orders at these levels will determine whether TON can regain bullish momentum and re-enter the pattern.

Which path will it take?

Using market indicators to gauge potential movement, TON is likely trending toward the lower end of the chart.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which indicates market trend direction and whether the altcoin is oversold or overbought, signaled a bearish trend.

A bearish trend occurs when the RSI reads between 50 and 30.

TON’s reading stood at 44.21 and trending downward, indicating a further drop is likely.

Source: TradingView

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) backed this view. The MACD line fell to -0.040, while the signal line hovered at -0.021.

The bearish crossover reinforced the seller dominance, hinting that lower lows may follow unless momentum reverses soon.

Users are flocking away

On top of that, TON’s DEX Trading Volume across decentralized exchanges dropped significantly and stood at $3.3 million. That is the lowest this year, as shown on the chart.

Source: Artemis

This sharp decline in activity suggests fading interest in TON’s ecosystem. With fewer users and weaker liquidity, both investor confidence and price stability appear compromised.

Unless on-chain demand returns or technicals reset, TON risks losing key support and drifting further from the bullish triangle.