Bitcoin’s Bull Run Hits a Speed Bump—Here’s What Could Trigger a Pullback

BTC’s parabolic rally shows cracks as on-chain metrics flash warning signs. Whale accumulation slows, exchange reserves creep up—classic profit-taking behavior before a dip.

Technical outlook: The $72k resistance level holds firm while RSI teeters near overbought territory. History says this combo often precedes a 10-15% correction. But let’s be real—since when does crypto follow textbook patterns?

Silver lining? Institutional inflows through spot ETFs continue unabated. Wall Street’s late to the party as usual, but their billions might just paper over retail traders’ panic sells.

Final thought: The ’greater fool theory’ works until it doesn’t. Either we’re witnessing healthy consolidation before the next leg up... or the last bagholders are about to get rekt. Place your bets.

Are derivatives traders preparing for a breakout?

Open Interest has surged 8.32% to $34.87 billion, pointing to rising activity in the derivatives market.

This increase typically suggests that traders are opening new positions, possibly in anticipation of heightened volatility NEAR resistance. 

The steady price rise, coupled with growing Leveraged interest, shows a willingness to speculate on bullish continuation. However, elevated Open Interest may also indicate higher liquidation risk if price reverses. 

Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s NVT ratio has skyrocketed to 485.13—a level rarely seen in previous market cycles. This ratio, which compares market cap to transaction volume, often signals potential overvaluation when it climbs excessively. 

While the price has been trending upward, network usage hasn’t matched pace, suggesting speculative flows could be dominating. 

Are long-term hands steering this rally?

The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has surged by 76.12%, yet the press time value of 0.17 remained low compared to historical thresholds.

This indicated that even with increased outflows, miners were not exerting meaningful sell pressure. 

During periods of high MPI, miners typically offload large amounts of BTC, contributing to corrections. However, the present value suggests restrained behavior from this cohort.

Source: CryptoQuant

Supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) ROSE by 7.22%, indicating a modest increase in coin movement among long-term holders. However, current values still reflect limited distribution from aged wallets.

Historically, when long-term holders begin to sell in large volumes, CDD spikes aggressively. Therefore, the mild increase shows that conviction remains strong among veteran investors. 

The 0–1 day Realized Cap HODL Wave stood at 0.274, reinforcing the view that short-term speculative activity remained subdued. This metric tracked the proportion of realized cap held by recent entrants. 

Low values typically indicate that the rally is not being driven by rapid buy-ins or pump-and-dump behaviors. 

Source: Santiment

Cup and handle pattern nears breakout above $107K

Bitcoin’s daily chart revealed a well-formed cup and handle pattern, with the neckline resting near $107,000. This classic bullish structure suggested the potential for continuation if a breakout occurs.

At the time of writing, BTC traded at $105,163.46, hovering just below the neckline.

Volume has remained steady during the consolidation phase, and RSI has not entered overbought territory, which further supported a bullish setup. 

A successful breakout could send BTC to new highs, while rejection might trigger a minor pullback toward the $100K support. The breakout zone remains a critical area to monitor.

Source: TradingView

Can BTC sustain its momentum despite overheated metrics?

Bitcoin’s rally remains well-supported by strong on-chain and technical signals. Exchange outflows, low MVRV, restrained miner selling, and weak short-term speculation indicate bullish conditions. 

However, the NVT spike above 485 highlights a possible imbalance between valuation and network activity. 

As BTC flirts with a key resistance level, the market’s next MOVE hinges on whether buyers can sustain momentum or whether overvaluation concerns will prompt a pullback.

For now, accumulation trends dominate the narrative—tilting the bias in favor of continued upside.