Bitcoin Primed for a Parabolic Breakout—Here’s Why

Institutional FOMO meets supply shock: Bitcoin’s perfect storm brews as halving cuts new supply in half. Wall Street’s ETF gold rush just added rocket fuel.

Technical breakout: BTC smashed through its 2021 ATH like a hot knife through butter—no resistance left until price discovery mode.

Macro tailwinds: With the Fed’s pivot looming and banks looking shakier than a DeFi protocol’s governance model, digital gold’s appeal grows.

On-chain data screams accumulation: Whales are hoarding coins faster than a VC pockets retail exit liquidity. History says this ends violently—to the upside.

Cynical take: Sure, the rally could happen—just in time for the usual ’sell the news’ dump when Wall Street cashes out and leaves hodlers bag-holding again.

Bullish Bitcoin clues, and the importance of $98.8k

Source: CryptoQuant

The data on the flow of Bitcoin from large whales to exchanges showed that on 17 May, 53.7k BTC was accumulated by holders with more than 10k Bitcoin. The large holders have seen negative BTC flows since August – A sign that smart money did not believe a market top was at hand.

While it was not a bullish short-term signal, it indicated that the bullish trend still had plenty of room for expansion. The falling exchange reserves data reinforced this idea, reaching levels not seen since August 2018.

Source: Axel on X

In a post on X, analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that short-sellers have been noticeably more cautious going short in 2025, than they were during the 2021 rally. This was demonstrated by the lack of notable long squeezes in recent months.

Here, it can be inferred that risk-averse bears reflected a generally bullish signal.

Source: CryptoQuant

Finally, in a post on CryptoQuant Insights, user Shayan noted that bitcoin successfully reclaimed the realized price of the 3-6 month holder cohort. As evidenced in October 2023 and October 2024, this reclaim generally came before a strong rally.

At the same time, it must be noted that the retracement towards this realized price, at $98.8k at press time, was likely to act as a dynamic support.