Bitcoin Smashes $103K – So Why Are the OGs Still Sitting on Their Hands?

Bitcoin just punched through $103,000 like a bull through a china shop – another all-time high in its relentless march upward. Yet the crypto veterans, the hodlers who’ve weathered every boom and bust, aren’t rushing to cash out. What gives?

Market psychology 101: When retail FOMO meets institutional greed, the smart money watches from the sidelines. Maybe they remember 2021’s ’double top’ heartbreak. Or maybe they’re waiting for Wall Street to pump another billion into spot ETFs before dumping bags on the newbies.

One thing’s certain – in crypto, even record prices come with a side of skepticism. After all, if traditional finance hadn’t spent a decade dismissing Bitcoin as ’rat poison,’ they wouldn’t now be scrambling to rebrand it as a ’digital asset.’ How very… strategic.

Are whales unloading too soon?

Whales have sold over 30,000 BTC in the last 72 hours, aggressively trimming their positions.

Simultaneously, Large Holders Netflow fell off a cliff, dropping 176.22% over seven days, and 71.25% over 30 days, per IntoTheBlock.

This data reveals a pattern of distribution rather than accumulation. Therefore, whales appear to lack confidence in the short-term upside.

Their consistent exits from the market suggest that caution is setting in. 

Source: IntoTheBlock

If large holders continue reducing exposure, short-term momentum could weaken despite Bitcoin’s higher valuation.

Nearly all Bitcoin holders are in profit.

Over 94.88% of addresses hold BTC above their cost basis. Only 0.88% remain out of the money. While this reflects strong profitability, it also introduces distribution risk.

Historically, such extremes have often preceded periods of correction. 

Therefore, the chance of broader sell pressure remains elevated. If holders rush to lock in profits, they could increase supply on the market. 

Is rising derivatives activity masking weak conviction?

Bitcoin derivatives markets show higher activity but lower conviction. Futures Volume ROSE 36%, while Options Volume climbed 45%. But look deeper.

Meanwhile, Futures Open Interest rose only 1.5%, and Options Open Interest actually dropped 5%. 

The takeaway?

It highlights speculative trading without strong long positioning. Traders remain cautious despite active engagement.

Therefore, current momentum lacks the DEEP leverage commitment seen during major rallies. Stablecoin buying power is growing.

The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio rose 4.49% to 0.00005, indicating increased reserves. This suggests that capital is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a better entry. 

However, it has not yet entered bitcoin markets. Therefore, the buildup remains potential, not realized. If Bitcoin dips, stablecoins could flood in to support price.

But without that trigger, the demand remains inactive.

Source: CryptoQuant

Is BTC’s long-term scarcity narrative growing stronger?

Zooming out, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio jumped 116.67% to 43.5K, highlighting the deepening impact of the halving-induced supply shock.

If demand returns with strength, this reduced supply could amplify price action quickly. However, without new inflows, this bullish structure remains underutilized.

Investors should track this metric closely as it reflects Bitcoin’s intrinsic long-term value. 

Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin shows strength in price but weakness in conviction. Long-term holders are muted, and whales are selling. Derivatives metrics reflect uncertainty.

Stablecoins signal readiness, but not deployment. Only scarcity supports the long-term case. 

Therefore, the rally’s sustainability depends on renewed demand absorbing selling pressure and validating current price levels.