Solana Faces Short Squeeze as Bears Pile In—Will the Network Prove Them Wrong?

Solana traders are stacking bearish bets, but history suggests crypto markets love punishing pessimists. The network’s recent resilience—coupled with memecoin mania still clinging to its ecosystem—could spark a violent short squeeze.

Anatomy of a squeeze: When too many traders bet against an asset, any upward price movement forces them to buy back positions at a loss... accelerating the rally. Solana’s high throughput and low fees make it a favorite for leveraged degenerates—perfect kindling for a squeeze.

Wall Street’s old guard would tut-tut at such volatility. Then again, they still think ’blockchain’ is a type of ergonomic chair.

Sentiment flips bearish despite strong on-chain performance

Solana’s Long/Short Ratio has dropped sharply to 0.8653 as of the 13th of May, marking its lowest level in the past 30 days.

This indicated that short positions now outweigh longs by a significant margin — 53.61% short vs. 46.39% long — a rare shift in sentiment for an asset that’s simultaneously leading DEX volumes.

Source: Coinglass

Over the past month, the ratio hovered NEAR equilibrium, with only brief deviations below 0.95. However, the recent plunge suggests a decisive tilt toward bearish expectations.

Whether this reflects genuine conviction or reactive hedging is unclear, but historically, such imbalances often precede volatility spikes — either from a short squeeze or a trend-confirming breakdown.

Solana leads the pack, but are traders buying it?

Despite the surge in bearish positioning, Solana is dominating DEX activity by a wide margin.

Over the past seven days, Solana has posted $22.4 billion in DEX volume — outpacing ethereum [ETH] by over $6 billion and putting it well ahead of BSC, Base, and Arbitrum.

The network’s high output and low fees continue to attract traders, memecoins, and liquidity alike.

Source: X

This disconnect between fundamental usage and derivative bets suggests a potential mispricing — or, at least, a divergence in short-term trader psychology versus long-term network traction.

If fundamentals still matter (they most definitely do), the crowd may be fading strength at exactly the wrong time.

Solana’s price outlook

SOL traded around at press time $174.53, consolidating after a sharp rally earlier this month. The RSI was at 71.83, indicating overbought conditions that may cap short-term upside.

Meanwhile, the MACD remained in bullish territory, with a clear divergence above the signal line, suggesting momentum hasn’t entirely faded.

Source: TradingView

Price action shows indecision candles following the breakout — showing potential for either a continuation or a short-term pullback. If SOL breaks above $176, it could target the $185-190 range.

However, failure to hold the $170 support zone might trigger a retracement toward $160.