Bitcoin Still a Steal—But Whales Are Cashing Out: Here’s the Metric That Proves It

Bitcoin’s trading below its true value—again. But this time, the big players aren’t waiting around for retail to catch on.

Key indicator flashing: The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric just tipped into ’belief’ territory, meaning early bulls are locking in gains before the next FOMO wave hits. Classic.

Why it matters: When long-term holders start dumping, it usually signals a short-term top. Not a crash—just proof that even crypto’s true believers still worship at the altar of profit margins.

Bottom line: The market’s still hungry, but the smart money’s already chewing. And as always, Wall Street’s ’adoption’ narrative conveniently ignores the fact that they’re just latecomers to the same speculative buffet.

Short term holders data hints at a potential profit taking phase

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is a key on-chain tool for tracking profit-taking activity among short-term Bitcoin holders.

Historically, when STH-SOPR enters the red zone, it signals increased selling NEAR local market tops.

This doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s rally is over, but it does highlight a high-probability zone for gradual profit-taking.

Past market cycles show that red SOPR readings often align with euphoric phases.

For BTC investors holding spot positions, now is the time to plan a structured, step-by-step selling strategy—avoiding emotional exits in favor of a strategic approach.

Source: CryptoQuant

In most cases smart investors usually offload 10–20% at key price milestones. This gives the “ammo” to sell at higher levels if the rally continues while also locking in gains along the way.

As the big players make these strategic profit locking moves, a short price correction to test the $100k demand zone could be engineered before a further BTC rally.

BTC’s MVRV Z-score confirms a room for further rally

Many analysts advocate for a gradual position exit, which could soon impact Bitcoin’s price action. To support this, AMBCrypto paired STH-SOPR with another key on-chain metric: the MVRV-Z Score.

This metric compares market value to realized value, helping identify potential overvaluation. At press time, the MVRV-Z Score was at just 2.3—far below the “overvalued” danger zone of 7+.

This strengthens the case for a measured distribution of BTC.

Source: CryptoQuant

The market may continue higher, but the current SOPR red zone offers BTC investors a rational point to begin securing profits.