Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment: Why This Price Level Could Trigger a Liquidation Avalanche

Crypto traders chasing the next rally—listen up. That key resistance level everyone’s watching? It’s not just a technical hurdle. It’s a loaded spring waiting to snap.

High leverage meets thin liquidity: The market’s favorite recipe for pain. When overzealous bulls pile into positions at this zone, they’re dancing on a trapdoor wired to derivatives exchanges. One sharp move could liquidate millions faster than a hedge fund closes its ’long-term’ crypto fund.

Remember: In crypto, the most obvious trade is usually the most dangerous. And right now? The crowd’s leaning hard into hopium while exchanges quietly widen their order books. Classic.

Spotlighting Bitcoin’s STH cohort

Since bitcoin tore through the $93k barrier, the STH MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) ratio has been steadily climbing, with short-term holders (> 155 days) pocketing a cool +10% on their positions.

In layman’s terms, these short-term players are sitting on unrealized profits, with their entry points comfortably below BTC’s current market value.

Source: Glassnode

Looking back at the previous cycle, we saw the STH MVRV peak when BTC tapped $98,154 on the 21st of November.

However, the rally didn’t stop there. Bitcoin continued to inch its way to the $106k mark over the next month, absorbing the pressure.

But here’s where things went south. The bid-side support couldn’t hold the line, as these STHs flooded the market with liquidity, sending the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) into DEEP red territory. 

This liquidity dump triggered a market reset, with BTC ultimately closing at $76,270 by early April.

Are the bears ready to roar again?

Coinglass data is flashing a cautionary signal: Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives has surged back to $66 billion, mirroring the levels seen when BTC was flirting with the $104k range last Q4.

It’s a high-stakes game. 

Source: Coinglass

With price action testing historical ceilings, short-term holders sitting on decent gains, and Open Interest heating up, the ingredients for volatility are all in place.

The next few days might just decide whether Bitcoin’s rally has real legs – or if it’s just another bull trap in disguise.