Celestia’s TIA surges—but here’s the looming threat that could trigger a pullback

Celestia’s native token TIA is riding high, but market veterans know rallies like this often come with a catch. One critical factor could slam the brakes on its momentum—let’s break it down.

The hype cycle’s double-edged sword: Network adoption metrics look strong, but TIA’s recent pump smells like speculative froth. Remember kids: what goes up must consolidate (or worse) when leverage flips.

Technical warning signs: The RSI’s been camping in overbought territory for days. Combine that with exchange inflows ticking up, and you’ve got a classic profit-taking setup. Even the most bullish traders are quietly tightening stop-losses.

Here’s the cynical kicker—half the ’fundamental’ arguments for this rally will evaporate if BTC sneezes. Welcome to crypto, where narrative shifts faster than a VC dumping their locked tokens.

Source: TradingView

In fact, the last overbought print in March marked a local top. So, while bullish signals emerge, caution remains necessary.

On top of that, the MACD Histogram flipped positive after crossovers just below the zero line, adding to short-term upside potential.

The test of the $3.70-$4.00 supply zone may resume if TIA stays above $2.80. If TIA broke below support at $2.80, it could send the price back to the wedge support at $2.40.

Oscillators and trend signals leaned on the bullish side, but we may see a CHoCH over $3.20 to confirm the reversal and invalidate prior bearish structure.

TIA transaction count and P/F ratio

Worth noting, Celestia’s weekly transactions ROSE to 402k, which led to 19.2M over the last year as of press time.

Such a steady increase in network activity indicated increased usage and participation, suggesting investor confidence and price appreciation if continued.

Spiking transactions may be associated with higher demand for block space, potentially setting TIA up for increased price pressure.

Although, the trend may lose impact, unless accompanied by a simultaneous increase in unique users or value transferred.

In the event that activity continues to lessen, it may indicate weakening momentum.

For now, this supports cautious optimism, but any ecosystem stagnation could stall price momentum.

Celestia protocol, seeing the increasing P/F Ratios of 11,751.2x for circulating supply and 20,939.0x on a fully diluted basis, per Token Terminal.

Source: Token Terminal

This divergence suggested strong expectations of future growth, or speculative interest. The circulating P/F offered a short-term investor sentiment, while the fully diluted had a long-term valuation assumption.

If protocol fee growth accelerates, these premiums may be justified. Otherwise, TIA risks a valuation correction.

Unmet expectations could trigger reversion. These high P/F ratios suggest bullish conviction—but also expose the price to sentiment-driven volatility.