Bitcoin Teases $100K—But Whale Dumps Spark Pullback Fears

BTC’s bull run faces its first real test as profit-taking triggers volatility. Here’s what comes next.

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The psychology of ATHs: Why traders panic-sell near round numbers (and why this time might be different).

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Watch the derivatives market: Leverage is stacking up like a Jenga tower—one whale exit could topple it.

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Meanwhile, Wall Street ’experts’ still can’t decide if crypto is dead or the greatest investment since sliced Tesla stock.

Is Bitcoin nearing a local top?

According to CryptoQuant analyst Mevsimi, Bitcoin’s 7DMA Net Realized Profit/Loss has remained strongly positive since early 2024, reaching +$1B/day.

Even after the March-April price drops, profit-taking behavior has remained relatively high.

This is historically consistent with late-stage bull market behavior where profit-taking dominates, even as price continues to rise.

Source: CryptoQuant

This behavior echoes past late-stage bull runs, particularly in 2021, where profit-taking preceded a sharp market correction.

Having said that, the structure has shifted with ETF inflows—yet investor psychology appears unchanged, just scaled larger.

Thus, profit-taking patterns still align with historical cycles, but the speed and volume are amplified. According to the analyst, this signal is not calling a full macro top, but it’s flashing a local caution zone.

What BTC charts suggest

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, although investors are aggressively taking profits, we are not there yet. As such, there’s still more room for growth, and a local top is currently unlikely.

For starters, looking at Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder SOPR, it declined from 2.5 to 1.7. That decline suggested profit-taking is mostly by short-term holders (STH), not LTH.

With LTH still holding on, it’s unlikely to be a top, usually, a top emerges where LTH profit taking is extremely aggressive. LTH has been absorbing pressure from STH.

Source: CryptoQuant

On top of that, the rise in dormant coins further strengthens the case for bullish conviction. Bitcoin’s total unspent supply ROSE to 19.53 million, while Coinbase’s unspent balance climbed to 1.77 million.

With dormant coins rising, it suggests that LTH is still bullish and continues to hold their positions.

Source: Bitbo

Finally, Bitcoin’s MVRV, which is a good indicator of a market top, remains within normal range around 2.1. Historically, Bitcoin’s market top has emerged when its MVRV surpasses 2.5.

Back in 2021, MVRV hit 2.7 before a steep correction. Currently, there’s still headroom.

Source: Bitbo

Simply put, Bitcoin still has more room for growth, and it’s not near a market top. With the recent price pump, BTC is still experiencing strong bullish momentum.

Therefore, after breaking out of $97k resistance, the next stop is $100k. However, if the leg up is a price pump before correction signaling a top, a retrace will see BTC drop to $94k.