FOMC Decision or Not, Bitcoin May Rally Anyway – Here’s Why

Markets hold their breath as the Fed prepares its next move – but Bitcoin’s playing by different rules.

Why traditional macro worries might not apply to crypto this time. The halving supply shock meets institutional demand in a perfect storm.

While Wall Street obsesses over rate cuts, BTC’s plumbing new highs on pure network fundamentals. The ultimate ’show me the code’ rebuttal to fiat monetary policy.

(Bonus jab: Meanwhile, gold bugs still waiting for that inflation hedge to actually work.)

History suggests pain ahead

Since the 1970s, every time the real federal funds rate has exceeded the natural rate of interest significantly, the U.S. economy has either entered a full recession or experienced a growth slowdown.

The chart below, based on Jim Paulsen’s analysis, highlights this pattern with striking clarity.

Currently, the real rate is well above the neutral rate, mirroring past peaks that came before economic downturns.

Source: X

President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the central bank seems set to hold steady at its meeting on the 7th of May.

Officials are approaching the decision cautiously, weighing conflicting economic signals—a Q1 GDP contraction against strong April job numbers.

However, with Trump’s tariffs introducing new inflationary pressures, the risk of delayed easing may grow.

Is Bitcoin the new safe haven?

Amid rising uncertainty and Fed policy paralysis, Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional assets. BTC surged over 7% in April, outpacing both gold and the S&P 500, the latter of which remained underwater for much of the month.

While gold held steady NEAR 5%, Bitcoin’s rally reflects a growing shift in investor behavior.

Source: Crypto Rank

With recession risks climbing and equities faltering, Bitcoin appears to be absorbing some capital traditionally reserved for gold or defensive stocks.

If rate cuts do materialize later this year, BTC could see renewed upside momentum as liquidity returns and risk appetite broadens.

BTC market positioning: “Up-Only” returns or just a pause?

Bitcoin remains technically intact despite mild selling pressure ahead of the FOMC. According to analyst Michael Van De Poppe, BTC is holding up “nicely” and may be bottoming out, with a potential low forming between today and tomorrow.

The attached chart shows liquidity clustered around the $61.5K-$62.5K range; marked as a crucial re-entry zone if Bitcoin dips further.

Source: X

After a strong rally in late April, BTC has entered a consolidation, a common pattern ahead of major Fed announcements.

Despite this, the broader trend remains intact, and market sentiment is shifting toward a potential easing cycle. If conditions align, the “up-only” thesis could regain momentum quickly.

If Bitcoin holds the green zone, bulls could take the charge and push for a continued move higher.