Bitcoin’s $97K Breakout: Can Bulls Overcome Profit-Taking Pressure?

Bitcoin teeters at a critical juncture—fresh off its latest rally, traders now face a wall of profit-taking pressure. The question isn’t just about momentum; it’s about whether retail FOMO can outpace institutional sell orders.

Key factors at play: Exchange reserves are creeping up, derivatives markets show overheated long positions, and that ’number go up’ mentality is colliding with cold, hard resistance levels. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s ’risk-on’ whispers sound suspiciously like last cycle’s exit liquidity playbook.

One thing’s certain: if BTC punches through $97K this week, it won’t be because the market’s rational—it’ll be because greed bypassed common sense... again.

Are BTC outflows misleading without whale accumulation to back the trend?

Large holder netflows have nearly collapsed, showing a staggering 90-day drop of -99.86%. This sharp decline highlights a sudden pause in whale accumulation, even as Bitcoin maintained momentum above $94K. 

Despite broader exchange outflows, the lack of buying from large entities raises doubts about strong institutional conviction. Historically, aggressive accumulation from whales has preceded major price rallies.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Bitcoin continues to see net outflows from exchanges, with the total netflow reaching -7.16K BTC — a 15.53% decrease. Typically, this trend implies accumulation and reduced sell-side pressure. However, the absence of matching whale activity makes the case less convincing. 

While retail and smaller holders may be moving coins off exchanges, institutional-grade support seems to be missing. Therefore, the current exchange activity appears hollow and may not translate into strong upward momentum unless large players re-engage.

Are profit-rich holders preparing to exit as selling pressure quietly builds?

According to on-chain data, 82.09% of Bitcoin addresses are currently “in the money.” This means most holders are sitting on unrealized profits. In such scenarios, the desire to accumulate more diminishes, especially when the market appears uncertain. 

Moreover, if Bitcoin faces any downward pressure, these holders could rush to secure profits, intensifying the decline. While it reflects a healthy market structure, high profitability often limits immediate upside unless new capital enters the space.

The Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) has surged by 21.88%, alongside a 13.19% rise in Supply-Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). 

Source: CryptoQuant

These increases suggest that long-held coins are being spent, often a sign of profit-taking by long-term investors. Historically, spikes in these metrics have aligned with local tops or periods of price stagnation.

Bitcoin faces resistance at $97.9K with mixed technical signals

Bitcoin has struggled to breach the $97,914 resistance level, with repeated rejections evident in the chart. 

Parabolic SAR dots continue to hover above the candles, signaling active bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD is flattening, hinting at weakening momentum and a potential crossover. 

This technical setup indicates indecision, and without renewed buyer strength, Bitcoin may be unable to sustain its current levels. Price compression NEAR resistance often precedes breakout or breakdown, and current signals lean slightly bearish.

Source: TradingView

While on-chain outflows persist and BTC remains near key resistance, weak whale activity, high profitability, and increased profit-taking raise downside risks. 

Bitcoin’s ability to push higher will depend heavily on fresh inflows and renewed large holder conviction. Without that, price may fail to break above $98K and could revisit lower support zones.