Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Three Possible Paths for BTC in 2025

Bitcoin stares down a pivotal moment—will it break out, crash hard, or drift sideways? Traders cling to their charts like holy texts while Wall Street ’experts’ recycle last cycle’s predictions.

The Bull Case: Institutional inflows surge post-ETF approvals, pushing BTC past $100K as FOMO overrides sanity.

The Bear Trap: Macro headwinds gut risk assets, triggering a 50% correction as leverage flushes out—again.

The Sideways Slog: Volatility collapses as Bitcoin matures, boring day traders to tears while HODLers shrug.

One thing’s certain: whichever path Bitcoin takes, some hedge fund manager will claim they saw it coming—right after the fact.

Three scenarios that could shape Bitcoin’s next rally

Building on Bitcoin’s momentum ratio, renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler highlighted three key scenarios for BTC’s next move after breaking the critical $97k overhead supply barrier.

At press time, BTC’s on-chain momentum sits in the “start” rally zone, with the momentum ratio at approximately 0.8 (80%). 

This means the market is positioned for potential upside, but the direction will depend on how the ratio behaves in the coming weeks.

Source: CryptoQuant

If the momentum ratio breaks above 1.0 and maintains that level, key metrics like NUPL and MVRV would signal a fresh upward impulse, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price into the $150k–$175k range. 

Conversely, if the momentum ratio dips to 0.75 or lower, STHs would start cashing out, leading to a potential correction to the $70k–$85k range.

In the third scenario, if the ratio holds in the 0.8-1.0 range, BTC will likely stay in a wide trading range between $90k and $110k.

In this scenario, market participants would hold their positions, but significant new exposure or buying pressure wouldn’t materialize.

BTC’s most likely next move

In the bullish scenario, if Bitcoin’s momentum ratio climbs above 1.0 and sustains, we could see a rally toward the $150k–$175k range, echoing previous macro cycles. 

In 2017, Bitcoin surged nearly 20x, while in 2021, it tripled after breaking prior highs – both cycles marked by NUPL and MVRV ratios entering euphoric zones. 

At press time, the MVRV sat at 2.16 — well below the 3.9 threshold historically seen NEAR market tops. Hence, there’s still headroom before reaching overvaluation.

This implies that the current market is not yet in a euphoric phase.

Source: Glassnode

Similarly, NUPL was holding at 0.54, indicating early-stage optimism. If NUPL pushes toward the 0.74 range, it would align with past bull market peaks, suggesting room for further upside. 

Source: Glassnode

However, if sustained buying pressure fails to emerge, a base-case scenario of consolidation between $90k–$110k becomes more likely, especially with resistance-driven corrections. 

That said, given a correction has already played out recently, the bullish and consolidation scenarios carry more weight than a deeper pullback.

Keep an eye on these indicators, as they hold the key to Bitcoin’s next move.