40 Million TRUMP Tokens Released – Analyzing the Unexpected Price Surge Amid Unlock Event

Despite the unlocking of 40 million TRUMP tokens, the memecoin’s market value experienced an upward trajectory, defying typical tokenomics expectations. This phenomenon suggests strong investor confidence or strategic accumulation, potentially driven by speculative demand or broader market trends. The resilience of TRUMP’s price post-unlock highlights the unique dynamics of meme-based cryptocurrencies, where community sentiment and viral factors often outweigh traditional supply-pressure models. Market analysts are closely monitoring the token’s liquidity flows and exchange activity to determine whether this rally reflects organic growth or coordinated trading patterns.

TRUMP tokenomics under scrutiny

The TRUMP token has a cap of 1 billion tokens, set to be unlocked over the next three years, setting a hard supply ceiling.

Currently, 20% of the total supply, or approximately 200 million tokens, are in circulation, with the remaining tokens set to unlock progressively.

Once the new tokens enter circulation, they will contribute to market dilution, exerting downward pressure on the price, especially if holders choose to sell immediately upon unlocking.

However, despite inflationary effects and supply-side pressure, TRUMP’s fundamentals have shown remarkable resilience, as illustrated by the chart below.

Source: Glassnode

Even though the token has lost initial “hype” post-launch, TRUMP’s STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) hasn’t entered capitulation territory.  Instead, maintained a bullish bias. 

This suggests that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are still holding positions, demonstrating Optimism and avoiding realizing losses.

In conclusion, TRUMP’s 88% price correction could lead to volatility following the release of 40 million tokens. 

However, its strong fundamentals suggest that its tokenomics continue to position it as a compelling bullish bet.

Key levels to watch

In alignment with AMBCrypto’s bullish thesis, TRUMP exhibited a robust 8% intraday rally in the immediate aftermath of the 40 million token unlock.

Hence, reclaiming the $8 psychological level amid a 68% uptick in 24-hour trading volume. 

This price response reflects bullish absorption of the unlock event, signaling that market participants may have front-run the supply-side dilution.

However, it remains unclear whether this move constitutes a structural reversal or merely a reflexive bounce within a broader downtrend. 

In other words, has TRUMP established a definitive cyclical floor, or is this an interim liquidity-driven rally primed for mean reversion?

The chart below may offer that answer.

Source: Glassnode

On one hand, strong holder conviction continues to defend the $7 support level, preventing a breakdown. On the other, weak capital inflows are capping TRUMP’s breakout potential.

Network growth metrics reflect this stagnation, with new wallet addresses dropping sharply to just 1,476 — a stark contrast to the 700,000 wallet count observed during its bullish expansion phase.

In conclusion, TRUMP’s recent rally appears to be a reflexive bounce, driven by speculative positioning around the token unlock. 

Without renewed inflows or a resurgence in network activity, the asset remains vulnerable to extended consolidation.