ETH/BTC under pressure – Will buyers step up this time?

• The ETH/BTC pair hovered near cycle lows, but key support around 0.05 BTC could provide a launchpad.
• If BTC dominance declines, capital may rotate into ETH, driving a rebound in the pair.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has plunged to new lows, fueling speculation about capital rotating into risk assets, particularly crypto. Historically, a weakening dollar has supported liquidity inflows into Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH]. 

Trump’s import tax hike intensified sell-side pressure on the U.S. dollar, pushing it back to pre-election levels. However, AMBCrypto’s analysis highlighted a crucial shift – BTC and DXY have decoupled, reducing the dollar’s reliability as a leading crypto market indicator.

Yet, macroeconomic catalysts remain in play. As soon as U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tariff break, Bitcoin reclaimed $86k after trading below this level for seventeen days, while Ethereum surged past $2k. 

BTC’s current non-linear price action presents ETH with a window to attract capital. The ETH/BTC pair signals growing momentum as the MACD flips bullish for the first time in nearly a month.

A well-defined support cluster has formed, marking the third compression phase in three months – an indication of a potential breakout and trend reversal in ETH’s favor.

Source: TradingView(ETH/BTC)

If the breakout structure is confirmed, analysts project a move toward 0.0019 BTC per ETH, with the pair currently hovering around 0.002 BTC.

However, technicals alone won’t do. In prior demand zones, buyers failed to sustain accumulation, leading to liquidity depletion and a breakdown to a five-year low.

If history repeats, the likelihood of further liquidity sweeps remains elevated. In such a scenario, ETH/BTC could extend its downside, further weakening Ethereum’s relative strength against Bitcoin.

ETH/BTC: Breakdown continuation or trend reversal?

For a confirmed ETH/BTC reversal, a BTC retracement remains a critical trigger. 

Current market structure identifies $89k as a major resistance zone for Bitcoin, where a prior breakout attempt failed on the 24th of March, reinforcing overhead supply. 

If BTC faces sustained rejection at this level, a corrective move could unlock ETH/BTC rotation, offering a potential bid for Ethereum dominance.

However, bullish conviction appears weak. Since the post-election rally, ETH has shown an increased correlation to BTC’s downside, consistently forming lower highs. 

On the 3rd of March, BTC’s 8.54% single-day drawdown led to a 14.66% ETH decline.  

Source: TradingView (ETH/USDT)

This structural shift suggests Ethereum is becoming increasingly reactive to Bitcoin’s drawdowns rather than benefiting from capital rotation.

If BTC retraces sharply, ETH risks losing the $2K liquidity zone, potentially driving ETH/BTC to fresh cycle lows.