Will Bitcoin recover to $90K or retrace lower? Analysts weigh in

• Bitcoin topped $88K after an update on Trump tariff plans. 
• For extended recovery, the previous support of $90K-$93K was a crucial hurdle to be cleared. 

On Monday, Bitcoin [BTC] topped $88K following President Donald Trump’s ‘less severe’ tariff plans scheduled for April 2nd.

Initially, most macro analysts from QCP Capital and Coinbase had warned of potential downside risks in case of renewed tariff wars in early Q2. 

As a result, the relief BTC rally after last week’s Fed meeting was extended to $88K. However, analysts were still divided on the BTC’s potential recovery above $90K.  

Mixed Bitcoin projections

Bullish analysts cited technical charts and structural shifts, suggesting that BTC could reclaim $90K and an all-time high (ATH).

In fact, Bob Loukas, a trader and analyst, noted that bulls were in control and the rally could last 15 weeks, citing historical and structural shifts on price charts. 

He said, 

“No real excuses left now for the bulls, the Cycle count is on their side.  (Week 3)…If the bull market is in control we could move mostly up for 15 weeks.”

Source: X

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX exchange,  reiterated a similar bullish outlook but cited the Fed’s shift from QT (quantitative tightening) to QE (quantitative easing) as a key catalyst.

He noted that BTC could tap $110K and zoom to $250K before retesting recent lows at $76K. 

“(Bitcoin) price is more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time, and we ain’t looking back until $250k.”

However, others were cautious or projected range-bound price action for a while. On his part, BTC trader, Cryp Nuevo, expected another dip to the $80K area, citing a likely liquidity-driven hunt for stop losses below $83K. 

Pseudonymous Glassnode researcher, VizArt, cautioned that an ATH would be a ‘pipe dream’ without reclaiming $90K-$93K. He stated,

“Most recent investors, who bought during Nov 2024 to Feb 2025, have a cost basis between $90k–$93k. Any bounce into this zone is likely to face selling pressure from those seeking to exit at break-even. Without reclaiming this supply zone, a new ATH remains a pipe dream.”

According to Bitfinex analysts, BTC could be stuck in a range-bound price action due to reduced speculative interest and activity, citing Bitcoin’s hot supply. They stated, 

“A contraction in the Hot Supply metric—from 5.9 percent in December 2024 to 2.8 percent today—underscores the cooling of speculative participation.”

Source: Glassnode

Per Bitfinex analysts, a sustained BTC recovery could only be feasible if there was macro clarity and renewed ETF inflows.

The spot BTC ETFs saw a $744M inflow last week, breaking the 5-week outflow streak. But, it remained to be seen how BTC price would react to Trump’s April tariffs.