Is Hedera in Danger? HBAR Could Drop 15% Soon – Here’s What You Need to Know (2025 Update)
- Why Is HBAR Losing Momentum After Its September Rally?
- The Macro Downtrend Isn’t Over Yet
- Exchange Data Reveals a Retail Exodus
- Key Levels to Watch This Week
- The Bottom Line: Volatility Ahead
- HBAR Price FAQ (2025 Edition)
Hedera (HBAR) is flashing warning signs after a recent bullish streak fizzled out. The token has dipped 10% in the last five days, and technical indicators suggest another 15% plunge might be imminent. While whales are accumulating, retail traders are fleeing – creating a tense standoff. Let’s break down the charts, exchange flows, and what this means for your portfolio.
Why Is HBAR Losing Momentum After Its September Rally?
Just last week, Hedera’s native token HBAR was riding high with six straight days of gains. But the party stopped abruptly when it hit the critical $0.25 resistance level – a make-or-break zone for confirming a lasting trend reversal. Without that breakout, sellers piled back in. As of September 17, 2025, HBAR trades below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, and a bearish "shooting star" candlestick pattern (visible on daily charts) hints at more pain ahead. If support at $0.21 cracks, we could see a test of the psychological $0.20 floor.
The Macro Downtrend Isn’t Over Yet
Zooming out to the bigger picture, HBAR’s charts tell a sobering story. Since July 2025, the token has consistently formed lower highs and lower lows – the textbook definition of a downtrend. The recent bounce looked promising but got smacked down at the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Now, with the 9-day EMA crossing below the 21-day EMA on the 4-hour chart (a reliable sell signal), history suggests another drop to $0.21 is likely. The last time this happened? HBAR tanked 18% in under 48 hours.
Exchange Data Reveals a Retail Exodus
CoinGlass metrics show over 60% of HBAR spot trades in the past day were sells. Retail traders are clearly spooked, but here’s the twist: Binance’s top traders areon HBAR futures. This divergence between "smart money" and "dumb money" often precedes sharp reversals. As one BTCC analyst noted: "Whales see this dip as a buying opportunity – if they’re right, the squeeze could be brutal for shorts."
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 24h Sell Volume Ratio | 62% (Source: CoinGlass) |
| Whale Long/Short Ratio | 7:3 (Binance Futures) |
Key Levels to Watch This Week
For active traders, these are the make-or-break zones as of September 18, 2025:
- Resistance: $0.235 (previous support-turned-resistance)
- Pivot: $0.221 (200-day moving average)
- Support: $0.210 (September low)
- Doomsday Scenario: $0.195 (2025 yearly low)
Personally, I’ve been burned before trying to catch falling knives in crypto. But with whale activity this pronounced, I’m keeping a close eye on the $0.21 level – a bounce here with high volume could signal the big players are stepping in.
The Bottom Line: Volatility Ahead
HBAR sits at a crossroads. Technicals scream "sell," but whale accumulation whispers "accumulate." One thing’s certain: with the Fed’s rate decision looming and Bitcoin’s dominance fluctuating, altcoins like HBAR are in for a bumpy ride. As always, manage your risk – maybe leave some dry powder for that $0.20 test if it comes.
Data sources: TradingView, CoinMarketCap, Binance.
HBAR Price FAQ (2025 Edition)
Why did HBAR drop 10% this week?
HBAR failed to break the $0.25 resistance level, triggering profit-taking. The rejection coincided with a broader crypto pullback as bitcoin ETF flows slowed.
Are whales really buying HBAR’s dip?
Yes – Binance’s top trader metrics show 70% have long positions. However, retail traders are net sellers, creating market tension.
What’s the worst-case scenario for HBAR?
A close below $0.21 could trigger algorithmic selling, potentially pushing HBAR to $0.19–$0.20. The 2025 low sits at $0.195.
