Barrick Gold’s Mali Crisis: Production Plummets 75% – Can the Stock Recover in 2026?
- Barrick Gold's Mali Meltdown: What Went Wrong?
- The Numbers Don't Lie: Barrick's Steep Decline
- Analysts Sound the Alarm
- Paradoxical Stock Surge: Gold Price Lifeline
- 2026 Outlook: Make-or-Break Year
- FAQ: Barrick Gold's Mali Crisis
Barrick Gold, once a titan in Mali's gold mining sector, faces a staggering 75% production drop at its flagship Loulo-Gounkoto complex. Fresh government data reveals output crashed from 22.5 tons to just 5.5 tons in 2025, sparking analyst downgrades and investor jitters. Despite a 134% stock rally fueled by rising gold prices, operational hurdles persist. This deep dive explores whether Barrick can reclaim its throne or if rivals like B2Gold will dominate Mali's goldfields.
Barrick Gold's Mali Meltdown: What Went Wrong?
Barrick Gold's Loulo-Gounkoto complex, previously accounting for over 20 tons annually, now produces a mere 5.5 tons – a 75.6% collapse. The two-year standoff with Mali's government over mining conditions led to temporary receivership. Although Barrick regained control in December 2025, logistical nightmares prevented a swift recovery. "This isn't just a hiccup – it's systemic," notes BTCC analyst Kwame Nkrumah. "B2Gold's 17.5-ton output proves Mali's gold won't wait for Barrick to fix its problems."
The Numbers Don't Lie: Barrick's Steep Decline
Mali's Ministry of Mines January 16 report paints a grim picture:
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loulo-Gounkoto Output | 22.5 tons | 5.5 tons | -75.6% |
| Mali Market Rank | #1 | #3 | Lost to B2Gold/Allied |
| Q3 2025 Group Output | 829k oz | Down 12% YoY |
Source: TradingView Mining Sector Data
Analysts Sound the Alarm
Zacks Research downgraded Barrick from "Strong Buy" to "Hold" on January 15, citing Mali woes. While Jefferies maintains a $55 target (vs current $49.64), the consensus is fracturing. "That 24.12 P/E looks rich given these headwinds," argues Raymond James' mining specialist Sarah Chen. "Until Loulo-Gounkoto hits 15 tons again, investors are betting on hope over fundamentals."
Paradoxical Stock Surge: Gold Price Lifeline
Despite operational chaos, Barrick shares gained 134% in six months – largely thanks to gold's rally. Q3 revenues hit $4.19B (23.2% above estimates), with institutional ownership holding at 90%. "The market's saying gold's tailwind outweighs Barrick's missteps... for now," observes BTCC's quarterly metals report.
2026 Outlook: Make-or-Break Year
With Q4 production expected at 881k oz (18% below 2024), all eyes are on February 5 earnings. Can Barrick:
- Stabilize Mali output by Q2 2026?
- Maintain dividend payouts amid cash flow pressures?
- Fend off B2Gold's encroachment in West Africa?
"Their 2025 guidance of 3.15-3.5M oz (ex-Mali) feels optimistic," cautions Canaccord's mining team. "Another miss could trigger serious portfolio rebalancing."
FAQ: Barrick Gold's Mali Crisis
How much has Barrick's Mali production fallen?
Loulo-Gounkoto's output dropped from 22.5 tons (2024) to 5.5 tons (2025) – a 75.6% collapse.
Who benefited from Barrick's Mali struggles?
B2Gold became Mali's top producer (17.5 tons), followed by Allied Gold (9.58 tons). Barrick now ranks third.
Why did Barrick's stock rise despite poor production?
Gold prices surged, lifting all miners. Barrick's Q3 revenue beat estimates by 23.2%, masking operational issues.
What's Barrick's 2026 production forecast?
The company projects 3.15-3.5M oz (excluding Mali), down from 3.91M oz in 2024.
