Is Bitcoin’s Trend Changing or Just a Temporary Shakeout? – Market Analysis (October 2025)
- Bitcoin Retests a Crucial On-Chain Support Level
- The 128-Day Moving Average: A Make-or-Break Zone
- Extreme Fear Grips the Market—Again
- $100,000 Bitcoin—Worst-Case Scenario or Likely Target?
- Key Takeaways for Traders
- Bitcoin Market Q&A
Bitcoin’s recent volatility has left traders questioning whether the bull market is over or if this is just a minor correction. With key on-chain and technical indicators still holding strong, the BTC market shows resilience despite last week’s dip below $120,000. This analysis dives into critical metrics like the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, the 128-day moving average, and the crypto Fear & Greed Index to gauge Bitcoin’s next move. Could we see a rebound or a deeper drop to $100,000? Let’s break it down.
Bitcoin Retests a Crucial On-Chain Support Level
Last week, Bitcoin’s price action brought it back to a critical on-chain level: the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (orange curve). Historically, this level has acted as a springboard for rallies, as seen in September 2024 when BTC bounced sharply after testing it. However, a sustained break below could signal further downside. Data fromshows that this metric has been a reliable support zone during bull markets, but its failure often precedes deeper corrections. For now, the market’s reaction here will be telling—will buyers step in or let the slide continue?
The 128-Day Moving Average: A Make-or-Break Zone
Technically, bitcoin is hovering near the 128-day moving average (blue line), a level that has repeatedly served as a launchpad during recent consolidations. According to, this moving average has been a key inflection point, with rebounds in late 2024 and early 2025 sparking renewed uptrends. If BTC holds here, another leg up isn’t off the table. But if selling pressure intensifies, the next major support sits at the 350-day moving average (currently near $100,000). Traders are watching this closely—history suggests the 128-day MA is where bulls either regroup or capitulate.
Extreme Fear Grips the Market—Again
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) plummeted to "extreme fear" last week, mirroring sentiment during past shakeouts.data reveals similar readings in March 2025 and late 2024, both of which preceded sharp recoveries. Interestingly, external factors like renewed U.S.-China trade tensions (thanks to Trump’s latest tariff threats) added fuel to the fire. As the old saying goes, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent," but contrarians see these fear spikes as potential buying opportunities. The question is: will this time follow the script?
$100,000 Bitcoin—Worst-Case Scenario or Likely Target?
Since early 2025, Bitcoin has traded above the Golden Ratio Multiplier’s baseline (orange band), signaling buyer dominance. A drop below this zone—last seen during the 2022 bear market—would be alarming. The 1.6x multiple of the 350-day MA (a key bull market support) is now being tested. If BTC loses this level, $100,000 becomes a realistic downside target. However, if the bull structure holds, analysts atnote that reclaiming the $128,000 resistance (red trendline) could open the door to new highs. It’s a razor’s edge moment for the king of crypto.
Key Takeaways for Traders
1.Large holders (>100 BTC) continue accumulating despite volatility.
2.The 128-day MA and STH Realized Price are critical support zones.
3.Fear spikes often precede rallies, but timing is tricky.
4.Geopolitics (e.g., trade wars) remain a short-term overhang.
5.Hold $120k = bullish continuation; lose $110k = $100k test likely.
Data sources: CoinMarketCap, TradingView, Glassnode.
Bitcoin Market Q&A
Why did Bitcoin drop below $120,000 last week?
The sell-off was triggered by a combination of profit-taking after months of gains, liquidations in Leveraged positions, and renewed macro uncertainty (U.S.-China trade tensions).
Is the bull market over for Bitcoin?
Not necessarily. Key metrics like the Golden Ratio Multiplier and holder behavior suggest the bull trend could resume if critical supports hold.
What’s the significance of the 128-day moving average?
This moving average has marked major trend reversals in past cycles. Holding above it typically signals bullish continuation, while losing it often leads to deeper corrections.
