Will Bitcoin Crash in 2025? 2 Scenarios That Could Send BTC to $150K or Plunge to $45K

• Is Bitcoin Facing a Major Correction After Its All-Time High?
• How Global Liquidity Could Fuel a Rally to $150,000
• The Stagflation Nightmare: Why BTC Could Crash to $45,000
• Bitcoin's Surprising Resilience Explained
• Historical Precedents: What Past Cycles Suggest
• Technical Levels to Watch
• Should You Buy Bitcoin Now?

Bitcoin's price action in mid-2025 has traders on edge - will the bull run continue toward $150,000 or are we headed for a brutal correction back to $45,000? This analysis examines both scenarios through the lens of macroeconomic forces, technical indicators, and on-chain metrics. With BTC currently consolidating near $109,000 after failing to break $112,000 resistance, the next major move could be determined by Federal Reserve policy, ETF flows, and the fragile state of bitcoin treasury companies. We'll break down the key factors that could trigger either outcome while providing historical context for Bitcoin's volatility cycles.

Is Bitcoin Facing a Major Correction After Its All-Time High?

Bitcoin has been range-bound between $104,000-$112,000 since hitting its May 22 all-time high of $112,000, showing unusual stability after its parabolic rally earlier in 2025. However, several warning signs suggest this consolidation might precede a significant pullback:

The weekly chart shows a concerning bearish divergence - while price made higher highs in May and June, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed lower highs. This classic technical pattern preceded major corrections in both 2019 and 2021. Glassnode's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric also shows 60% of holders are currently in profit, historically a zone where sell pressure increases.

Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes that BTC's recent rejection at $106,000 mirrors price action from early June that led to a quick 5% drop. If $105,000 support breaks, he anticipates a retest of the psychologically important $100,000 level, which could trigger liquidations among overleveraged traders.

How Global Liquidity Could Fuel a Rally to $150,000

On the bullish side, an unprecedented confluence of monetary policy and institutional demand could propel Bitcoin significantly higher:

The European Central Bank has already cut rates twice in 2025, with more easing expected. Though the Fed has held rates steady so far, political pressure for cuts is mounting as the U.S. election approaches. Lower rates typically boost risk assets as investors chase yield beyond government bonds.

Bitcoin ETFs continue their record inflow streak - $1 billion added in the first week of July alone - creating consistent buying pressure. With post-halving supply now at just 450 new BTC daily (down from 900 pre-April 2024), the supply/demand imbalance grows more extreme each week. Simple math shows just a 37% move from current levels WOULD take BTC to $150,000.

The Stagflation Nightmare: Why BTC Could Crash to $45,000

The bear case centers on macroeconomic risks that could unravel Bitcoin's recent decoupling from traditional markets:

President Trump's proposed July tariffs (up to 70% on some imports) threaten to reignite inflation just as it was cooling. If the Fed responds by delaying rate cuts or even hiking, we could see a repeat of 2022's liquidity crunch. Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks might reassert itself in this scenario.

More concerning is the fragile state of dozens of publicly traded "Bitcoin treasury" companies that have borrowed heavily to buy BTC. These firms rely on continuous price appreciation - a sharp drop could force margin calls and create a selling cascade. When similar leverage unwound in March 2020, BTC plunged 60% in days.

Bitcoin's Surprising Resilience Explained

Despite these risks, Bitcoin has shown remarkable stability above $100,000. Finance educator Andrei Jikh attributes this to three structural changes:

1) ETF flows now provide billions in institutional demand that didn't exist in previous cycles
2) The 2024 halving reduced sell pressure from miners by 50% overnight
3) Over 93% of all Bitcoin has been mined, creating unprecedented scarcity

Historical Precedents: What Past Cycles Suggest

Examining Bitcoin's behavior after previous halvings provides context for both scenarios:

In 2017 and 2021, BTC saw 30-40% mid-cycle corrections before resuming its bull run. A similar pullback now would target $85,000 (near the 50-week EMA). However, the current cycle differs in two key ways - institutional participation via ETFs and much lower available supply.

The 2013 double-top pattern also bears watching. After an initial peak and 70% crash, BTC rallied even higher before the final top. Some analysts believe we're in the "middle innings" of a similar pattern targeting $230,000 by 2026.

Technical Levels to Watch

TradingView data highlights these crucial price zones:

- $105,000 (June low)
- $100,000 (psychological level)
- $85,000 (50-week EMA)

- $112,000 (all-time high)
- $119,000 (1.618 Fibonacci extension)
- $150,000 (institutional price target)

Should You Buy Bitcoin Now?

This comes down to risk tolerance. The bullish case appears stronger given institutional flows and monetary policy trends, but potential downside to $45,000 represents real risk. Dollar-cost averaging may be prudent rather than lump-sum investing at these levels.

As always in crypto, volatility is the price of admission. Those who held through 2022's 75% crash were rewarded with new highs. But with leverage at record levels across the ecosystem, the next correction could be especially violent.