BTCC Daily (9.2) | Global Bond Selloff Intensifies, Brent Crude Rises Above $95

Top Highlights

• The renewed escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude above $95, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.8122%, putting pressure on global equity and bond markets.

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 2.85%, while Korea’s KOSPI plunged 3.99%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 4.02% and 4.73%, respectively.

• BTC pulled back to around $77,600. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded single-day net outflows of $236 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing about $201 million in net outflows.

Macro & Policy Outlook

Today’s Key Events

• U.S. August ADP employment

• Bank of Canada interest-rate decision

• Broadcom quarterly earnings

• Fed releases Beige Book

Macro Headlines

1. U.S. and Iran engage in another large-scale exchange of fire, Brent crude rises above $95

The U.S. launched another round of airstrikes on Iranian targets, followed by retaliatory strikes from Iran, reigniting market concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude briefly rose to $95.68 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed to $90.83 per barrel. In the previous session, both major crude futures gained more than $4.

2. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.8122%, global bond selloff intensifies

Higher oil prices revived inflation expectations. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.8122% intraday, the highest since November 2023. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.015%, while long-term rates in Germany, the UK, and other major economies also continued higher. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September rose to about 67%–70%.

3. Bank of Japan signals further rate hikes, September meeting in focus

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said this month’s meeting will focus on assessing whether economic and price risks are consistent with the central bank’s forecasts, while also watching inflation pressure from a weaker yen and the Middle East situation. Board member Hajime Takata said rate hikes should not be bound by a fixed six-month rhythm and should respond flexibly to price changes. The Bank of Japan’s current policy rate is 1%.

4. U.S. July job openings rise to 7.271 million, but hiring drops sharply

U.S. Labor Department data showed that JOLTS job openings rose by 89,000 to 7.271 million in July, slightly below market expectations of 7.30 million. Hiring fell by 278,000 to 5.054 million, while the hiring rate declined from 3.4% to 3.2%. Markets are awaiting tonight’s ADP report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report to further assess labor-market conditions.

5. Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises rates by 25 bps, policy rate rises to 2.75%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with market expectations. The bank said inflation still needs to be restrained, but its wording on further policy tightening was softer than before. After the announcement, the New Zealand dollar briefly fell about 1%.

Global Asset Performance

• Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 2.85% at 64,325.64. Korea’s KOSPI Index closed down 3.99% at 6,562.72, with Samsung Electronics falling 4.02% and SK Hynix down 4.73%. In U.S. premarket trading, Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.3%, S&P 500 futures fell about 0.1%, and Dow futures were nearly flat.

• Crypto: The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 72, in the greed zone. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.61 trillion, down about 1.4% over the past 24 hours. BTC traded near $77,600, down about 1.5% in 24 hours. Today’s trending cryptocurrencies: FIL rose about 13.4%, while UNI gained about 9.0%.

• Energy & Metals: Brent crude rose about 1.1% to $95.68 per barrel, while WTI crude rose about 0.7% to $90.83 per barrel. Spot gold traded near $4,321 per ounce, down about 0.2%, while spot silver fell about 0.5% to $63.96 per ounce.

(Data as of September 2, 15:00 HKT)

Crypto Market Snapshot

1. Futures Capital Flow Analysis

On September 2, according to Coinglass data, BTC, ETH, SOL, SOXL, XAU, and other contracts led net outflows in futures trading over the past 24 hours, potentially signaling trading opportunities.

2. Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap

On September 2, according to Coinglass data, based on the current reference price of $76,780 on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, if Bitcoin falls below $75,000, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.14 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $79,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $1.39 billion. Traders are advised to manage leverage prudently to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

3. Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio

According to Coinglass data, as of 17:00 HKT on September 2, the overall Bitcoin long/short ratio stood at 0.8448, indicating that bears currently hold a relative advantage.

4. Stock Futures Performance

On September 2, stock contracts weakened broadly. KORU and SOXL fell 7.33% and 6.82%, respectively, while CRCL dropped 5.15%. SKHYNIX and MU also fell more than 2%. On the capital-flow side, SOXL trading volume rose 33.42% and OI increased 12.63%, showing that leveraged positions continued to build during the decline. OI in SNDK and NVDA fell 9.13% and 6.78%, respectively, suggesting more visible capital outflows.

5. On-Chain Monitoring

• According to on-chain analyst Ai姨, as ETH fell below $2,400, a whale holding 45,000 ETH in long positions had an unrealized loss of about $4.1 million. The position is currently worth more than $107 million, with an entry price of $2,486.37 and a liquidation price of $2,252.68.

• On-chain data shows that a whale appears to have sold 95 BTC through an OTC transaction, worth about $7.32 million.

• According to Coinglass data, Hyperliquid whales held total positions of about $7.206 billion, including $3.466 billion in longs and $3.740 billion in shorts, with a long/short position ratio of 0.93.

• The largest SHIB-holding address again transferred out about $3.09 million worth of SHIB, with remaining holdings worth about $478 million.

Blockchain Headlines

• On September 1 ET, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $236 million. BlackRock’s IBIT saw about $201 million in net outflows, while Bitwise’s BITB recorded $8.38 million in net inflows.

• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $10.9528 million over the same period, marking the 12th consecutive trading day of net inflows. BlackRock’s ETHB saw single-day net inflows of $11.2001 million.

• U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded single-day net inflows of $10.19 million, with Bitwise’s BSOL seeing about $6.17 million. Cumulative net inflows into SOL ETFs were about $1.351 billion.

• The U.S. SEC proposed updating transfer-agent rules originally established in the 1970s, aiming to adapt the regulatory framework to new market infrastructure such as blockchain and tokenized securities.

• The Monetary Authority of Singapore sought feedback on its single-currency stablecoin regulatory framework, proposing that issuers maintain at least 100% reserve assets and be prohibited from paying yields to stablecoin holders.

• S&P Dow Jones Indices partnered with Kaiko to launch the S&P Kaiko Digital Asset Index Series, providing institutions with crypto-asset benchmarks and market-data tools.

• Fogo mainnet restarted. Of the 400 million tokens involved in the previous security incident, 237 million have been recovered and permanently removed.

• Robinhood Chain data shows that about 17.2% of tokenized-stock supply has entered Meme liquidity pools linked to stocks, and such trading accounts for about 31.3% of on-chain stock trading volume.

• Flop Labs, backed by Arthur Hayes, is developing a GPU compute marketplace that plans to allow AI agents to use FLOP tokens to purchase computing resources, with validator nodes verifying completed compute tasks.

Institutional Insights · Daily Picks

• TD Cowen lowered its year-end 2026 Bitcoin price target to $97,500 from its previous base-case forecast of about $140,000. It also cut its Strategy price target from $400 to $260 but maintained a “Buy” rating. Analyst Lance Vitanza said the adjustment mainly reflects recent BTC price weakness rather than deterioration in market structure.

• Bitwise Europe said Bitcoin has reclaimed most key pricing ranges. Its long-term holder supply model and risk-appetite transition model both show the market shifting toward a risk-on phase. The firm said $83,000 remains an important resistance area that needs to be broken.

• CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s composite sentiment index has fallen from 88.11 on August 24 to 70.05, but remains in the extreme greed zone. BTC prices did not strengthen in tandem over the same period, suggesting that improved market sentiment has not yet been fully confirmed by price momentum.

• Citi strategists Alex Saunders and Bin Bo said the weighted average purchase cost of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors is concentrated between $80,000 and $83,000, making this range an important current price zone. StoneX said concerns over the U.S. fiscal position and renewed ETF inflows had previously jointly supported demand for alternative assets.