US Job Growth Slows+Rate Cut Expectations: Bitcoin Eyes $110,000 Again

Last updated:07/04/2025

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Summary

Amid a continued slowdown in the US job market and growing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path, expectations for rate cuts are rising. Major global asset managers are increasing their Bitcoin allocations, pushing BTC closer to the $110,000 mark in the near term.

1. Noticeable Slowdown in US Employment Growth

In the first five months of 2025, the US added an average of just 124,000 new jobs per month — significantly lower than the 168,000 monthly average for the same period last year. Additionally, the US Department of Labor has revised down job figures for the previous four months by an average of 55,000 jobs per month, suggesting the real condition of the labor market may be weaker than initial estimates.

The “mini nonfarm” ADP private payroll report also reinforces this sluggish trend: in June, the US private sector lost 33,000 jobs, with small businesses suffering the most.

Multiple factors are driving the slowdown in employment, including higher costs due to tariffs, waves of government layoffs, and stricter immigration policies. Meanwhile, structural challenges such as slower population growth and an aging workforce are making it increasingly difficult for the US to generate new jobs quickly — a trend that is becoming a major headwind for the broader economic recovery.

Following the latest data, markets are betting even more strongly that the Fed will cut rates at least twice before the end of 2025.

2. Fed Faces Mounting Pressure to Pivot

The continued cooling of the job market is adding pressure on the Fed to adjust its policy stance. Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, that the labor market is gradually cooling and that the Fed is closely monitoring signals of potential economic weakness.

More notably, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant publicly stated that the Fed could cut rates as soon as September — or even earlier. He argued that President Trump’s tariff policies have not meaningfully pushed up inflation, leaving the Fed with more room to begin easing ahead of schedule.

Adding to the uncertainty is the question of Fed leadership. Powell’s term expires in May next year, but the Trump administration has yet to name a successor. There are even rumors that Besant himself could serve as both Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair — which, if realized, would mark the first time since 1935 that the roles have been consolidated. This uncertainty is fueling additional safe-haven demand in the markets.

3. Institutional Investors Continue to Increase Bitcoin Exposure

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), managed by the world’s largest asset manager, continues to perform strongly. Its assets under management have reached $75 billion, with estimated annual revenue of $187 million — surpassing even BlackRock’s S&P 500 index ETF (which manages $624 billion). This indicates that Bitcoin is steadily evolving from a retail-dominated asset to a core holding for institutional portfolios.

At the same time, data from 10x Research shows that while Bitcoin has seen 98 consecutive days of net outflows since late April, ETF inflows have remained strong and the amount of BTC held on exchanges continues to decline — signaling that institutions and long-term investors remain confident in Bitcoin’s outlook.

4. Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Potential

As of July 3rd, BTCC market data shows that Bitcoin prices briefly approached the $110,000 level, reaching an intraday high of $109,727.82 with a daily gain of 2.99%. This latest push appears to be driven by renewed market sentiment following the soft jobs data, which has strengthened expectations that the Fed may cut rates sooner than expected — boosting Bitcoin’s short-term appeal as capital flows in.

Over the medium to long term, once the Fed begins cutting rates, the global monetary easing environment is expected to solidify, further highlighting the value of Bitcoin’s inherent scarcity. In addition, the recent passage of the GENIUS Act — the new stablecoin regulatory framework in the US — could help clarify the compliance landscape for Bitcoin and other digital assets, paving the way for greater institutional inflows.

5. Outlook: Active Positioning for Steady Returns

Considering the weaker job market, ongoing policy uncertainty, and the continued buildup of institutional capital, Bitcoin could maintain its strong performance in the near term. Investors may look for tactical trading opportunities during short-term price swings. Over the long term, a disciplined, step-by-step approach to accumulating Bitcoin during market pullbacks could help capture potential upside and build a more resilient portfolio.

Investors should closely watch three key factors:

The timing of the Fed’s first rate cut later this year;
· Trends in Bitcoin ETF inflows, which directly reflect institutional sentiment;
· Geopolitical risks and movements in gold markets, which could temporarily divert or attract capital.

Risk Disclaimer: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice or a trading recommendation. The market carries risk — please trade with caution and manage your positions wisely.

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Step 1: Register an account

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Step 2: Finish the KYC

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Fiat Deposit. Buy USDT using Visa/Mastercard (KYC required).
Crypto Deposit. Transfer crypto from another platform or wallet.

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Look more for details: How to Trade Crypto Futures Contracts on BTCC

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Based on its track record since 2011, BTCC has established itself as a secure cryptocurrency exchange. There have been no reports of fraudulent activity involving user accounts or the platform’s infrastructure. By enforcing mandatory know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) procedures, the cryptocurrency trading platform gives consumers greater security. For operations like withdrawals, it also provides extra security features like two-factor authentication (2FA).

Is KYC Necessary for BTCC?

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Because their accounts will have a lower daily withdrawal limit, those who do not finish their KYC are unable to make deposits. It should be noted that those who present a legitimate ID without a facial recognition scan will likewise have restricted withdrawal options.

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Will I Have to Pay BTCC Trading Fees?

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Can I Access BTCC From the U.S?

You can, indeed. According to its website, BTCC has obtained a crypto license from the US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), which enables the cryptocurrency exchange to provide its services to investors who are headquartered in the US.

According to BTCC’s User Agreement document, its goods are not allowed to be used in nations and organisations that have been sanctioned by the United States or other nations where it has a licence.

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