Crypto Price Prediction: Crypto and Stock Market Collapse as US Recession Probabilities Reach 40%

The likelihood of the US economy going into a recession this year increased to 40%, which caused cryptocurrencies and the US stock market to plummet.

Key Takeaways：

• Fears that the economy was going into a recession caused the US stock market and cryptocurrency to plummet.
• According to the Kalshi prediction market, there is a 40% chance that a recession will occur in 2025.
• Additionally, President Trump has acknowledged that his economic policies would create some instability.

Bitcoin hit a four-month low of $76,000 on March 11, 2025, leading to a catastrophic collapse in the cryptocurrency sector. On its worst trading day since 2022, the S&P 500 lost $1.4 trillion in market worth. Worries of an impending recession set off the massive selloff in risk assets; analysts now project a 40% probability that the US economy would enter a recession this year.

Forecasting Cryptocurrency Prices as Market Crash Worries Grow Over US Recession

Uncertainty in the economy has scared away investors from risky assets like cryptocurrency and stocks. Yesterday was the worst trading day for the S&P 500 in two years, with a $1.4 trillion decline in market worth. We are seeing this index close to a six-month low.

When the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped to $76,000 and $1,800, respectively, for the first time since November 2023, a comparable slump occurred, leading to $954 million in total liquidations. Similar to most top altcoins, their prices have fallen to multi-month lows.

After forecasting market Kalshi revealed that the likelihood of a US recession has increased to 40%, the dread of an impending recession set off this downward trend. Gold, for example, has lately hit an all-time high, and traders are fleeing riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and equities as a result.

Recession Rumours in the US Fuelled by Trump

After President Trump did not completely exclude the possibility of a US economic recession in 2025, market anxiety increased. President Trump acknowledged in a Fox Business interview that his economic measures, like tariffs, will create temporary instability. He declared,

Because what we’re doing is so monumental, there will be a time of adjustment. There will be some interference, but that’s fine with us.

Even though there is still a lot of unknown in the US economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that things are looking up. In order to spur economic development and prevent a recession, the Fed did not act quickly to lower interest rates.

We can retain policy restraint for longer if the economy is robust and inflation does not continue to move sustainably towards 2 percent,” Powell said.

FAQs

What is causing today’s cryptocurrency decline?

Since the likelihood of a recession in the US economy increased to 40%, cryptocurrencies are declining today.

Will the price of Bitcoin go below $80,000 once more?

The price of bitcoin may fall below $80,000 if investors continue to reduce their exposure to stocks and cryptocurrency.

This year, will the US economy go into a recession?

There is a 40% chance that the US economy will go into a recession this year, according to prediction market Kalshi. Additionally, President Trump has acknowledged that his economic policies would create some instability.