Strong NFP Boosts Rate-Hike Bets, BTC Falls Below $80K, CPI in Focus This Week

On September 7, markets searched for direction amid “strong NFP, high oil prices, and inflation repricing.” U.S. August nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations, strengthening expectations for a September rate hike. U.S. stocks came under pressure last Friday, while spot gold fell below $4,400. In contrast, the crypto market remained relatively resilient, with BTC continuing to fluctuate around the $80,000 level.

Strong NFP Boosts Rate-Hike Bets as Oil Prices Keep Rising

U.S. August nonfarm payrolls were significantly stronger than expected, reinforcing market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The probability of a September hike edged up to around 58%. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran clashes resumed over the weekend, pushing oil prices higher. WTI crude rose to around $92 during Monday trading, while Brent crude approached $97. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose in response.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower last Friday, with the Dow down 0.79%, the Nasdaq falling 1.03%, and the S&P 500 losing 0.71%. Technology stocks were broadly under pressure, but memory-chip stocks bucked the trend. SanDisk rose 11.90%, while Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology each gained around 6%, showing that capital continues to make selective allocations around AI-driven memory demand.

U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. During Monday’s Asian session, South Korean stocks rose sharply. The KOSPI closed up 4.61%, SK Hynix gained 8.26%, and Samsung Electronics rose 5.68%.

Attention now turns to U.S. PPI and CPI inflation data due this week. Rising energy prices are adding to inflation uncertainty and further increasing the importance of this week’s inflation readings.

BTC Falls Below $80K, ETF Inflows Remain a Key Support

BTC briefly reached $82,200 last week, its highest level in more than three months, before pulling back amid strong NFP data, rising oil prices, and stronger rate-hike expectations. According to BTCC market data, BTC is currently trading at around $79,266, down 0.73% over the past 24 hours. The price has slipped back below $80,000, with high-level consolidation becoming increasingly evident.

Technically, $79,000-$79,400 is the first short-term support zone. A breakdown could open the way for a further test of $78,000, while stronger support remains at $76,000-$76,500. On the upside, BTC needs to reclaim and hold $80,000-$80,500 before it can retest the $81,000-$82,200 resistance zone.

Fund flows remain supportive. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $987 million in net inflows last week, marking a third consecutive week of net inflows. This has been an important reason BTC has remained near recent highs despite rising macro pressure. However, if BTC continues to struggle to break above $82,200 on stronger volume, profit-taking and leveraged positions may continue to cap the rebound.

ETH Falls Below $2,500 as Altcoin Leverage Builds

ETH has slipped back below $2,500 in the short term. According to BTCC market data, ETH is currently trading at around $2,485, down 0.45% over the past 24 hours, with momentum weaker than during the rebounds seen in recent days.

Technically, $2,470-$2,480 is the nearest support zone. A break below could lead to a retest of the $2,400-$2,450 range. On the upside, ETH needs to reclaim and hold $2,500-$2,523 before it can continue testing $2,550-$2,600.

From a market-structure perspective, BTC remains the core asset, while several major altcoins continue to show activity. Analysts noted that altcoin open interest has now surpassed BTC open interest for the first time since December 2024. This suggests that risk appetite is spreading toward high-beta assets, but it also means leverage risk is rising at the same time.

HYPE pulled back to around $86 after approaching $90, while ZEC previously surged above $1,200. Overall, the altcoin market remains characterized by selective rotation rather than a broad-based rally. Only if BTC regains $80,000 and remains stable at elevated levels is capital rotation likely to become more sustainable.

What to Watch This Week

The main focus this week is U.S. inflation data. August PPI will be released on September 10, followed by CPI on September 11. If inflation remains hot, expectations for a September rate hike could rise further. If inflation cools, it could ease pressure from the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields on risk assets.

Apple will also hold its product launch event on September 9, while Oracle, Adobe, and other companies are scheduled to report earnings. The performance of technology stocks will continue to influence broader risk appetite.

Overall, BTC has entered a high-level consolidation phase after reaching $82,000. The $80,000 level has shifted from a breakout point to a near-term battleground. Ahead of the CPI release, the market is more likely to remain range-bound.

Risk Warning: Some of the views in this article are drawn from public media sources and are for reference only. They do not constitute any investment advice or trading recommendation. Markets involve risks, and trading should be approached with caution. Please ensure you have appropriate risk controls in place.